Frontline Systems invites you to download and experience for yourself the magic of risk analysis with Interactive Simulation, using the New Beta 2 version of our Risk Solver Engine for Excel. Use super-fast PSI Technology in your own risk analysis models.
Thank you for your past interest in Frontline Systems and our Premium Solver Platform and Solver Platform SDK products! We've been leaders in optimization, in spreadsheets and in custom applications, for many years. But if you're interested in risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation, and especially if you're a consultant, modeler and application developer, we have something new and innovative -- and we'd like you to try it out for free. Beta 2 software is now available, with several new, cool analytical and user interface features.
Risk Solver Engine is an exciting new approach to Monte Carlo simulation that empowers you to play 'what if' with uncertain values as easily as you do with ordinary numbers. Each time you change a number on the spreadsheet, a simulation with thousands of trials is performed -- often in no more time than a single spreadsheet recalculation -- and a full range of simulation results and statistics can be displayed. By writing macros in Excel VBA, you can fully control Risk Solver Engine and create custom risk analysis applications. Frontline Systems is making a Public Beta version of Risk Solver Engine available for free download and evaluation from now to the end of June 2006 -- Sign up today!
The Magic of Interactive Simulation
If you've used a traditional tool for building Monte Carlo simulation models, in Microsoft Excel or otherwise, you're in for a surprise -- and a treat Risk analysis for uncertain models becomes as easy as asking 'what if'. Suddenly, you find that insights about the model, and decisions you can make, start to flow intuitively. Early users have called this instant, interactive feedback "addictive." In Dr. Sam Savage's words, "Risk Solver Engine does for uncertainty what the spreadsheet did for numbers."
Powered by PSI Technology?
Risk Solver Engine uses Frontline's Polymorphic Spreadsheet Interpreter technology to achieve breakthrough simulation speeds -- up to 100 times faster than normal Excel-based Monte Carlo simulation -- thus making Interactive Simulation practical every time you change a number on the spreadsheet.
PSI Technology? was first developed to greatly enhance performance in optimization. For three years, it has powered the Premium Solver Platform, where it has been proven in use. For the past year, Frontline has licensed and delivered software to Decisioneering Inc.: PSI Technology powers the Extreme Speed feature of Crystal Ball?, where it has been proven in use for Monte Carlo simulation.
Support for Probability Management
Interactive Simulation on every spreadsheet change is just one of the innovations in Risk Solver Engine. It's also the first software to support the practice of Probability Management and Coherent Modeling in large organizations, proposed by Dr. Sam Savage in articles appearing in the February and April 2006 issues of the INFORMS publication OR/MS Today.
Certified Distributions, created by experts -- perhaps like you -- and provided to end users in the form of numeric tables called SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets) and SLURPs (Stochastic Library Units, Relationships Preserved), can make simulation models far easier to create, analyze and compare.
Breakthroughs in Simplicity and Power
Risk Solver Engine may be a breakthrough in simplicity for risk analysis -- but don't underestimate its power. It has more powerful random sampling capabilities, more choices of analytical probability distributions, and more statistical analysis functions than any other Monte Carlo tool for Excel. It's the only Excel-based product with the speed and the analytical tools needed for Monte Carlo applications in financial engineering.
Excel Functions for Monte Carlo Models
With Risk Solver Engine public beta version, you can run any of the included Interactive Simulation models, and you can easily develop your own models All you need is a copy of Excel and basic skills with spreadsheet formulas.
You can define uncertain inputs or 'random variables' either with functions such as PsiUniform() and PsiNormal() for analytic probability distributions, or with a PsiSlurp() function that accesses a Certified Distribution. Use property functions to specify correlations between random variables, shifting and truncation of distributions, and more. And with statistics functions such as PsiMean(), PsiVariance() and PsiPercentile(), you can access simulation results -- instantly on every spreadsheet recalculation.
Once you define a model, there's nothing complicated about risk analysis and simulation. Just change numbers on the spreadsheet -- the factors you can control -- and instantly see the full range of outcomes for the factors you cannot control!
VBA Objects/Properties for Monte Carlo Models
If you're familiar with Excel VBA, that's even better -- you can build complete custom applications using the Risk Solver Engine VBA object model. Define a Problem and instantiate it from the spreadsheet with two lines of code, then access the uncertain elements of your model via Variable and Function objects. Perform simulations, access trials and summary statistics, and present them the way you want to your end user. All the power of the Excel object model is available, including database access, charts and graphs, and custom dialogs and controls.
Risk Solver Engine's VBA object model closely resembles the object-oriented API of Frontline's Solver Platform SDK -- which includes a complete toolkit for Monte Carlo simulation. This makes it easier to move an application from Excel to a custom program written in C/C++, Visual Basic, VB.NET, Java or MATLAB. It's a new, higher level way to build a Monte Carlo simulation model!
New User Interface Components
Risk Solver Engine is designed for consultants, modelers and application developers. The basic "engine" has no GUI features -- it works through Excel functions and VBA. But it's easy to create user interface components for Risk Solver Engine -- and in Beta 2 we show you how! We include four example UI components -- two in source code form -- and a new Stochastic Gauge and a SLURP browser that you've never seen before!
If you have any interest in risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, you've got to see Risk Solver Engine. Now is an ideal opportunity to get a free first look, participate in the public beta test, and influence the direction of this new product and technology. Sign up today!
